Re: Hie^.p U*o*'c Ma^.u Di.ch (HUMD) Vie^.t My?

[NGUYEN Hong Thach <thach@coombs.anu.edu.au>]

Hi ba'c Hoa, 

> 1/ Vie^.c ky' HDTM vo+'i My~la` vie^.c bi`nh thu+o+`ng va` ne^n la`m (ngay
> ca?

Ca'i na`y thi` trong chi'nh phu?, ca? nhu+~ng ngu+o+`i pha?n ddo^'i dde^`u
ddo^`ng y' vo+'i ba'c Ho`a. Nhu+ng va^'n dde^` la` ddi va`o ca'c ddie^`u
khoa?n cu. the^?, thi` co' the^? to^i kho^ng bie^'t chi'nh xa'c, chu'ng ta
tha^'y ca'i gia' qua' lo+'n. Logic tho^ng thu+o+`ng la` ngu+o+`i ta chi?
la`m ca'i gi` khi benefits outweight costs, nhu+ng ne^'u HDTM ma` cost
cao ho+n benefits thi` sao? To^i chu+a tha^'y mo^.t pha^n ti'ch na`o chi? ra
la` benefits cao ho+n, ma` cho dde^'n nay chi? tha^'y nhu+~ng ca^u chung
chung la` ca? the^' gio+'i ky' vo+'i My~, My~ la` cu+o+`ng quo^'c KT,
vv... 

> 2/ Vai tro` cu?a My~ trong ne^`n kinh te^', thu+o+ng ma.i toa`n ca^`u he^'t
> su+'c lo+'n, ne^n (co' he^. lua^.n) ne^'u muo^'n tham gia va`o ne^`n kinh
> te^' ddo', trongti`nhhi`nh hie^.n nay, thi` kho^ng the^? que^n/bo? qua
> ddu+o+.c My~. 

Vie^.c My~ ma.nh kho^ng ai ba`n ca~i nu+~a. Nhu+ng co`n ca'i "he^. 
lua^.n" cu?a ba'c thi` to^i chu+a tha^'y thuye^'t phu.c la*'m. Trong 
lu'c ca^`n/pha?i ky' vo+'i My~ thi` ngu+o+`i ta co' the^? ky' nhie^`u 
loa.i HD. Va^.y ca^u ho?i la` chu'ng ta ne^n co^' ga*'ng pha^'n dda^'u 
cho loa.i HD na`o.

 To^i dda.t ca^u ho?i la` lie^.u ba'c na`o co' the^? so sa'nh HD My~ ky'
vo+'i mo^.t nu+o+'c dang phat trie^?n na`o va` HD My~ offer vo+'i VN dde^?
chu'ng ta co' the^? so sa'nh va` co' ca'ch dda'nh gia' khoa ho.c thi`
dde^'n nay chung ta va^~n dda~ co' ba^'t ky` mo^.t msg na`o nhu+ the^'
dda^u. 

> Ngay ta cu~ng co`n ca^`n dde^'n Nha^.t, Nam Ha`n, DDa` Loa`n,
> Singgapore..dde^? pha't trie^?n kinh te^'. Theo kinh nghie^.m cu?a ca'c
> nu+o+'c dda~/ddang tre^n ddu+o+`ng pha't trie^?n kinh te^' thi` My~ la` thi.
> tru+o+`ng tie^u thu. ra^'t lo+'n. Ca'c nu+o+'c Nha^.t, Nam Ha`n , Dda`i
> Loan, Trung quo^'c dde^`u du+.a va`o vie^.c buo^n ba'n co' lo+.i vo+'i My~
> ma` "bo^'c le^n".
> 
Ba'c nghi~ o+? nha` kho^ng hie^?u chuye^.n ABC na`y hay sao. No'i nhu+~ng 
chuye^.n tre? con na`y ro^`i hy vo.ng thuye^'t phu.c ddu+o+.c policy 
makers thi` qua? la`... mo+ mo^.ng tha^.t.

> Dda^y la` ddie^`u dda'ng tie^'c ddo'. Nhu+ng ai cho ba'c  copy ca'c hie^.p
> ddi.nh ddo'  dde^? ddie^`u nghie^n, ke^? ca? nu+o+'c ba.n tha^n thie^'t
> nha^'t cu?a ta la` Trung quo^'c.

Ddu'ng la` nhu+~ng no^.i dung ddo' kho^ng co' tre^n net dde^? ba'c va` 
to^i search ca'i la` ra ngay. Nhu+ng to^i kho^ng nghi~ la` kho^ng the^? 
access ddu+o+.c nhu+ b'ac nghi~ dda^u.

> Du` sao ke? "tri' gia?" co' the^? "ho?i
> tha(m" ddo^i ddie^`u ddu+o+.c chu+',
......
NhU+~ng ddie^`u ba'c "ho?i tha*m" thi` ba'c pha?i ho?i ddu'ng ddi.a chi? 
chu+'. O+? VNSA cha*?ng ai tra? lo+`i ddu+o+.c cho ba'c dda^u.

> > to^i
> >hie^?u la` My~ e'p VN kha' nhie^`u so vo+'i ca'c hie^.p ddi.nh My~ dda~
....
> Ba'c ho+i ma^u thua^~n o+? cho^~ na`y. Khi ba'c dda~ kho^ng bie^'t HDTM
> giu+~a My~ vo+'i ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c nhu+ the^' na`o, thi` sao la.i ddo^?
> lo^~i la` My~ e'p VN ho+n (e'p) ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c.

Ba'c dde^? y' chu+~ "HIE^?U" (understandably, hay allegedly ) cu?a to^i 
nhe'/. Ca'i ma` to^i nghe va` vi` ly' do gi` ddo' kho^ng the^? tri'ch 
nguo^`n cho ba'c thi` trong khoa ho.c xa~ ho^.i ngu+o+`i ta vie^'t ra 
nhu+ mo^.t kha? na*ng, tho^ng tin dde^? co' the^? tham kha?o/.

> My~  e'p the^' na`o ma`
> TQ ha`ng tha'ng co' ca'c ca'n ca^n thu+o+ng ma.i vo+'i My~ co' lo+.i dde^'n
> 7, 8 ty? ddo^ la ?

Ba'c nhi`n quan he^. thu+o+ng ma.i Trung-My~ ho+i ddo+n gia?n dda^'y. 
Ba'c thu+? ddo.c Segal tre^n Foreign Policy ga^`n dda^y thi` cha*'c ba'c 
se~ co' the^m tho^ng tin dda^'y.

> VN dda~ tu+`ng ye^u ca^`u kho^'i DNA co' chi'nh sa'ch
> dda(.c bie^.t ve^` thu+o+ng ma.i vo+'i mi`nh (to^i nho+' la` v/d thue^'
> kho'a), to^i nghi~ VN cu~ng muo^'n co' "che^' ddo^. u+u dda?i" ddo' la^`n
> na`y vi` ti`nh tra.ng kinh te^' ddo^.c dda'o cu?a mi`nh, nhu+ng cha('c kho'
> ddu+o+.c tho?a ma~n. 

Ca'i na`y thi` ba'c hoa`n toa`n vo~ ddoa'n ro^`i. Ba'c kho^ng co' tho^ng 
tin ddu'ng kho^ng? Theo to^i bie^'t, thi` VN kho^ng da.i gi` ddo`i ho?i 
ca'i ngu+o+`i kha'c kho^ng co'.Trong quan he^. vo+'i My~ VN la`m gi` co' 
ca'i dde^? na^ng gia', ma*.c ca? dda^u. Ca'i VN ddo`i, chi? la` bi`nh 
thu+o+`ng nhu+ ca'c nu+o+'c kha'c tho^i.

cheers,
thach