Re: VN & Chine

[ianb@sun670.telecom.tandem.com (Ian Bui)]

WARNING: READ AT OWN RISK! :))

> Consider the following problem:
> (Undoubtly) Chine becomes a bigest superpower in the XXI century.  
> What rule will play VN as a neighbour of superpower?
> How VN-se goverments imagine themself the new geopolitical 
> sytuation and a place for VN in XXI century?

My thoughts are that VN will continue to play "second-fiddle"
to China and follow in its footsteps for sometime. And as China 
emerges from the cocoon of its Socialist past (as it has been 
doing) it will pull VN along with it. Personally, I do not see 
how VN's leaders can have the political will to do it on their 
own, much less ahead of their Chinese counterparts. Doi moi is 
a perfect illustration of this "second-fiddle" reality.

Secondly, VN will no doubt have to align itself with other 
powers in the region and in the West (the US especially) 
in order to leverage its strength and protect its economic/
political/strategic interests. Actually, this already has been 
happening, and it surely should continue even when a new crop
of political players come onto the stage.

Thirdly, VN would be smart to establish a strong trading 
partnership with China since economics always is a crucial
element in international relations. As the saying goes: 
Money talks! The North Korean defection incident was a 
serendipitous event that exemplified how much China did
not want to jeopardize its budding friendship with South 
Korea -- a major investor and trading partner, no matter 
how ideologically close to North Korea they are, or more
precisely: were!

Lastly, in the 21st century, military might may not be as 
powerful or persuasive a force as economic might when it comes 
to settling international disputes. Moreover, there is a good 
possibility that the world will become more "interdepended" -- in 
the sense that organizations such as the World Trade Organization, 
the World Court, the U.N, etc. will have to play a more prominent 
role in arbitrating international conflicts. In this scenario, VN 
will be served best by learning to become a good citizen of the 
world, thereby giving itself some extra protection from any 
intentional or unintentional misgivings by her northern neighbor. 
(But what good citizenship also means is that certain "taboo" 
subjects of today, such as ... ahem... "human rights" ;)) will 
eventually have to be raised and handled in an open and 
professional manner, or VN will just as easily lose the 
support of many developed nations -- morally, politically,
as well as financially.)

Thanks for reading. Hope I haven't broken any house rules. :))

Ian, the Armchair Analyst ;)