Re: Vietnam and China

[Nguyen Tuan Trung <nttrung@alfa.mimuw.edu.pl>]

> On the other hand, Vietnam is already experienced in operating
> fighters vectored by radars. And an aircraft carrier can field a
> limited numbers of planes. 

I heard that Vietnam purchased from Russia a squadron of SU-27s Flanker,
top modern fighters considered (also by the West) to be one of the best
fighters of the world. I don't know the exact number of planes purchased,
but the bad news is that I am sure China had bought the same aircrafts 
from Russia in much larger quantities, and is negotiating with Russia to
buy a licence to manufacrure them in China.

Sometime back I read that China also bought several Sovremenyi class
destroyers equipped with deadly Sunburn sea-sea missiles and they kept
negotiating with Russia on a possible order of an aircraft carrier, most
probably a Piotr Velikij class. And I don't see why they won't be able
to buy some Aegis-like cruisiers from the cash eager Russians. So it is only
a matter of time before China can form a powerful battlegroup. :(    


> About France. Recently France has been the first country to propose many
> peace keeping operations. France is one of the countries that is quickest to
> send forces to protect its interests and nationals. In the 80s France helped
> Chad, once its colony, to fight Lybian aggression. France was one of the 
> countries which defined the borders between Vietnam and China. If Vietnam asks 
> France for help to defend these borders, France's pride and colonial romanticity
> will oblige it to give at least material help. We have only to gain to enter 
> into treaty with France. 

I wouldn't be so enthusiastic about the readiness of the French to intervene
in our favour. In 1939 France and Great Britain showed Poland how much a military
alliance with them really was worth. I think "No Frenchman will die for Hoang Sa"
best describes our chance to get military help from France, even if we have a
military alliance with her (which we don't). Besides, with the Chinese navy being
rapidly modernized, I don't think France has a superiority over China in naval power.
 
The only hope for us thus remains in the US or/and ASEAN joint efforts, but
we will have to offer to be the first defense line to contain Chinese agression
in the SEA region, which, at least to me, resembles very much the scenario:
"US and/or ASEAN will fight China to the last Vietnamese." So sad, but it is
probably our fate.

Trung