Re: What happens if China invades?

[Aiviet Nguyen <aiviet@cat.syr.edu>]

Hi Anh Huy,
  Do you know the strategy " Vie^~n giao ca^.n co^ng"? If China really wants
to  conquest for teritory, she will court the other ASEAN countries first.
The second step will target at the nearest country, in this case it is VN.
  There will be no common effort.People are short-sighted.

  I don't think China did all this stuff because she wants teritory. 
Whatever the motivation is VN is an ideal victim.

    No inland war will happen. VN should have at least three defense 
fronts in North. Each would cost China at least haft millions. The second
front at Chilang Bac can will be tough as they could only come one by one.
After Song Thuong, if they have a lot of tanks ( at the rate 10/1) they 
can roll to Hanoi in two or three hours. Even in that case, it will also 
be very tough to go down through Tam Diep, Song Gianh,... And what is 
that for? The price to pay for is that China will loose the last chance 
to modernization and the chance to be defeated at second and even first 
front is high. Russia, US, and Western countries would be very happy to see 
that. China is not crazy.

     However a small collision could happen on water. VN has no chance there.
Anh Vu Ca talked about the real situation of our fleet. I just would like 
to add, we are not as well equipped as even Thai pirates.
   We should avoid such a collision also. Certainly we should raise 
voice cleverly.
   
   One question I would like to ask about the sovereinity of VN over 
those islands. How is the ownership of VN legal and clear?
   
   I talked to few mainland Chines "friends"(?? or enemies). They are quite
confident that those islands belonged to China.

   I am sorry about my ignorance. But I never read anything about this.
Can any body educate me?
 Thanks
Aiviet
         

      




On Fri, 21 Mar 1997 
huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk wrote:

> Dear friends,
> 
> If China invades the islands and the seas, what will happen?
>  
> 1) China invades Vietnam's islands, then the Philippines, then Brunei's,
> then Malaysia's, then Indonesia. One by one, when their turn come, the SEA 
> countries forfeit their islands and eventually the whole of the SEA sea
> belongs to China, as stated in Chinese maps.
> 
> 2) ASEAN unites for common defence. China is stronger than ASEAN and
> ASEAN is scared of China, but in reality China is a land power and Thailand, 
> Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines are well protected from China
> by distance, terrain and the sea, and China cannot take the war to most
> ASEAN countries. Suppose China attacks an ASEAN island. ASEAN sends planes
> to attack the Chinese fleet. The Chinese fleet would then be very vunerable.
> The British at Falklands had one of the best fleet in NATO, much better than 
> the Chinese fleet today. The Argentine aircrafts had to operate at the limit
> of their ranges, which ASEAN aircrafts won't have to. Still, the basic Excocet
> missiles and unguided bombs (many didn't even explode) nearly defeated the 
> British fleet and America had to supplement its air defence. I don't think the 
> Chinese fleet can attack ASEAN. China can bomb Vietnam. China can invade Vietnam 
> by land. This will `teach Vietnam a lesson', but it will be costly to China
> and it will not bring benefits to China. So, Vietnam will be battered, but
> China will not prevail over ASEAN and ASEAN can resist China's push into
> the SEA sea. Unless China resorts to weapons of mass destruction... 
> 
> If the world gives in to China now, like it did to Germany and Japan in the 30s,
> the above scenarios won't only be be Vietnam's problem, and it won't only
> be ASEAN's problem either.
> 
> Huy      
>