What happens if China invades?

[huy.duong@ctsu.ox.ac.uk]

Dear friends,

If China invades the islands and the seas, what will happen?
 
1) China invades Vietnam's islands, then the Philippines, then Brunei's,
then Malaysia's, then Indonesia. One by one, when their turn come, the SEA 
countries forfeit their islands and eventually the whole of the SEA sea
belongs to China, as stated in Chinese maps.

2) ASEAN unites for common defence. China is stronger than ASEAN and
ASEAN is scared of China, but in reality China is a land power and Thailand, 
Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines are well protected from China
by distance, terrain and the sea, and China cannot take the war to most
ASEAN countries. Suppose China attacks an ASEAN island. ASEAN sends planes
to attack the Chinese fleet. The Chinese fleet would then be very vunerable.
The British at Falklands had one of the best fleet in NATO, much better than 
the Chinese fleet today. The Argentine aircrafts had to operate at the limit
of their ranges, which ASEAN aircrafts won't have to. Still, the basic Excocet
missiles and unguided bombs (many didn't even explode) nearly defeated the 
British fleet and America had to supplement its air defence. I don't think the 
Chinese fleet can attack ASEAN. China can bomb Vietnam. China can invade Vietnam 
by land. This will `teach Vietnam a lesson', but it will be costly to China
and it will not bring benefits to China. So, Vietnam will be battered, but
China will not prevail over ASEAN and ASEAN can resist China's push into
the SEA sea. Unless China resorts to weapons of mass destruction... 

If the world gives in to China now, like it did to Germany and Japan in the 30s,
the above scenarios won't only be be Vietnam's problem, and it won't only
be ASEAN's problem either.

Huy