Re: When VN becomes a real Tiger?

[Sonnet Nguyen <Sonnet.Nguyen@fuw.edu.pl>]

Hi all friends,

First I'm grad to see Mr Nguyen Thanh Long, real economist &
good businesman, in this topics.

On Thu, 8 May 1997, Long Nguyen Thanh wrote:

> 	All the countries called as Tigers have made a impresive
> growth in economics, which cannot meets any rules mathematical or
> any rights in economics.

Unpossibility of discribe economics in the pure mathematical language
is from the fact that math operates on only well-defined conceptions.
Economics and other proper Sciences have a lot concepts which are hard or
impossible to translate in the language of math.  Here if some one want to
get some exact results, he want to built himself a simple mathematical 
model and on which he'll operate.  The mathematical model for forecast was
given and was most simple and clear.

These impressive growth in economics of Asian Tigers, in the language of
math, is not like to your thought: "no math rules".  These growths are 
like the growths of EXPONENT functions.  Each schoolboy has to remember
that exponent functions increase quickest!  These impressive growths, in
fact, are the realization of Exponent functions in real life.


 
> 	All the measurments you have given are only calculations
> of mathematic, and unfortunately it is not a good predictor of
> future.

Angree with you at this point.  But remember that if we want to have
a forecast, then we have to establish our assumtions. Assumtions in
the first message were most simple.  These assumptions, of course, are
unrealistic, however these assumptions can be realized in the real life. 



> 	Let us get a look closer to the economics of tigers
> countries 20 -30 years ago. Is there any significant 
> differencies between our average actual level of life and their?
> How long did it take them to become a tiger contries from one of
> the poorest contries in the world? In fact, they did it within 20
> years. So what is a stream of their success?


My intentions were give you simple & nice forecast of economical growth
of our country.  In many other topics we have disscused about reasons
and tried answear the question "WHY".



> 	All tiger countries at first had a dictactor politic or
> party ( i.e Taiwan or Korea) they have less freedome and
> democracy (unfortunately that's true, they have very weak
> individual or personal right, and the most important there was
> only a bit of the right of property, which in economie theory is
> the key for capital economics.


Correct observation, but it's well-known fact.  Democracy is a concept
of modern WEST culture, and exlored intensively after French revolution.
It has nothing connection with Chinese, Korean and Japanese culture.
So, if each individual citizent does not require more freedom for himself,
then democracy is worst system!  Of course, democracy is something one can
learn, but it requires a Time.  In the first etap of economical 
development, democracy ussually disturbes economy than help.  Look back to
Chile (with dictator Pinochet), as nonAsian example ilustrating this
hipothesis.


> 	So  what is the key of their success? Their success came
> from their unusual characterics of society and,in fact, the most
> important is religia. Their succes is product of religia, ethics
> and culturee.. All of them doesn't exist in any outside
> countries. IN fact, there is not significant between Vn and
> others contries in this region in point of starts. The questions
> is how we can utilize it? 

Of course, religion and specifics of  culture have many influences on the
economical development.  But, most important things for goverments are
create the best conditions for economical developments.  What are
neccesary conditions - this is a problem of other HOT topics:
Not "When" but "How"!!!

Best,
SN